MMA 20260727

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# MMA 20260727

Source: https://maronanmetals.com.au/images/MMA_20260727.pdf
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# MMA 20260727
27 JULY 2026
RISK - SPECULATIVE
ANALYST
James Williamson MARONAN METALS (MMA)
AUTHORISATION
Stuart Howe
The real deal
RECOMMENDATION (initiation)
SPECULATIVE BUY Developing a high-grade polymetallic deposit
*See key risks on Page 15.
MMA is developing the Maronan Project, a high-grade, long life polymetallic deposit
located 60km southeast of the well-established mining centre of Cloncurry in
PRICE
Queensland. The project’s June 2025 Mineral Resource Estimate includes contained
A$0.375 metal of: 122Moz silver; 2Mt lead; 271kt copper; 760koz gold; and 18kt zinc.
Mineralisation occurs across 1km strike and remains open at depth beyond 1km.
VALUATION
A$0.760 (initiation) Initial Starter Zone: NPV8 $377m; low-hanging upside
A September 2025 Preliminary Economic Assessment considered two development
scenarios for an initial underground Starter Zone representing just 22% of the overall
Expected return MRE: (1) Toll-treat ore through an existing processing plant; and (2) construct a
Capital growth 102.7% standalone 1.2Mtpa processing facility. Average annual steady-state contained metal
Dividend yield 0.0% production for the initial 9-year mine life is: 3Moz silver; 38kt lead; 1.4kt copper; and
Total expected return 102.7% 3.8koz gold. The PEA’s on-site processing scenario gives a pre-tax NPV8 of $377m
at a silver price of US$36/oz (spot US$58/oz), with each US$1/oz increase adding
Sector ~$20m to the NPV. We see material upside to PEA metrics with potential to develop a
Materials larger on-site processing facility (i.e. 2Mtpa) and by extending the mine life with 78%
of the existing Resource sitting outside of the Starter Zone.
Capital structure & trading data Rapidly de-risking towards development
Enterprise value A$84m An ongoing 40,000m diamond drill program is targeting Resource conversion and
Market cap A$118m material for met test work with an updated MRE expected late 2026. In March 2026,
Issued capital 314m MMA was awarded a Mineral Development Licence, enabling development of a
Free float 80% boxcut and exploration decline to de-risk the Resource and provide key infrastructure
Avg. daily val. (52wk) A$412.8k ahead of production. A Pre-Feasibility Study and maiden Ore Reserve are scheduled
12 month price range A$0.23-0.70 for mid-2027. Permitting activities are at an advanced stage, with a Mining Lease
application expected to be submitted in late 2026.
Investment thesis: Speculative Buy, Valuation $0.76
Maronan is located in a well-established mining region and is positioned to produce
metals with strong long-term structural tailwinds, supporting a value re-rate as MMA
de-risks the project towards production. Key upcoming value catalysts include: Drill
results (ongoing); updated MRE (1Q 2027); Preliminary Feasibility Study and maiden
Ore Reserve (mid-2027); and permitting and approvals (ongoing).
Price performance
(1m) (3m) (12m)
Price (A$) 0.43 0.31 0.24 Earnings estimates
Absolute (%) -11.8 21.0 56.2
Year ending 30 June 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e
Rel market (%) -11.8 21.0 55.2
Sales (A$m) - - - -
EBITDA (A$m) (8) (12) (14) (18)
Share price (A$/sh) vs. XKO
NPAT (reported) (A$m) (8) (11) (13) (21)
$0.70
NPAT (adjusted) (A$m) (8) (11) (13) (21)
$0.60
EPS (adjusted) (A¢ps) (3.1) (3.1) (2.8) (3.4)
$0.50
EPS growth (%) na na na na
$0.40
PER (x) (12.2) (12.2) (13.3) (10.9)
$0.30
FCF Yield (%) -6.5% -14.9% -24.5% -117.5%
$0.20
EV/EBITDA (x) (10.6) (7.3) (6.2) (4.8)
$0.10
Dividend (A¢ps) - - - -
$0.00
Jul 24 Jan 25 Jul 25 Jan 26 Jul 26
Yield (%) - - - -
MMA S&P 300 Rebased Franking (%) - - - -
Source: IRESS Source: Bell Potter Securities estimates
Bell Potter Securities Limited ABN 25 006 390 772 AFSL 243480
Disclaimer: this report must be read with the disclaimer on page 19 that forms part of it. Disclosure: Bell Potter Securities acted as Joint Lead Manager to MMA's $16m equity raising in October 2025
and received fees for this service. PAGE 1 | 19
MARONAN METALS (MMA) 27 JULY 2026
Contents
Investment view: Spec. Buy, Val$0.76sh 3
Valuation & company financials 4
Capital structure & available funds 6
Maronan Project (100% MMA) 8
Board & management 13
Maronan Metals (MMA) 15
PAGE 2 | 19
MARONAN METALS (MMA) 27 JULY 2026
Investment view: Spec. Buy, Val$0.76sh
Large high-grade polymetallic Resource with exploration upside: The Maronan
Project’s June 2025 Mineral Resource Estimate includes 33Mt silver-lead ore grading
108g/t silver and 6.0% lead, and 32Mt copper-gold ore grading 0.85% copper and
0.63g/t gold for total contained metals of 122Moz silver, 2.0Mt lead, 271kt copper and
760koz gold. Mineralisation is defined across 1km strike and over 1km deep and
remains open down plunge. A 40,000m diamond drill program is ongoing (around
7,000m completed to date), aiming to de-risk areas around the Starter Zone to
increase the mining inventory in upcoming studies and provide core for met test work.
Robust PEA economics & optionality: A September 2025 PEA considered two
development scenarios for an initial underground Starter Zone representing just 22%
of the MRE: (1) Toll-treat ore through an existing processing plant; and (2) construct a
standalone 1.2Mtpa processing facility. Average annual steady-state contained metal
production for the initial 9-year mine life is: 3Moz silver; 38kt lead; 1.4kt copper; and
3.8koz gold. The PEA’s on-site processing scenario gives a pre-tax NPV8 of $377m
at a silver price of US$36/oz (spot US$58/oz), with each US$1/oz increase adding
~$20m to the NPV. We see material upside to PEA metrics with potential to develop a
larger on-site processing facility (i.e. 2Mtpa) and extend the mine life with 78% of the
existing Resource sitting outside the Starter Zone.
Highly experienced Board & executive team: MMA's board and senior
management team bring over 175 years’ experience across exploration, financing,
mine development, and operations. Managing Director Richard Carlton has served as
General Manager at several operations including Edna May in Western Australia.
Project Director Dean Fredericksen has held senior site-based roles with base metals
and gold producers including Evolution (EVN, Buy TP$15.10/sh) and Newcrest (NCM,
not rated). Exploration Manager Andrew Barker has been pivotal in discovering large
deposits including EVN’s Cowal gold mine in New South Wales.
Leveraged to commodities with strong structural thematics: We see strong
structural price support across all metals Maronan will produce. The PEA estimated
revenue shares of 53% for silver, 39% for lead, 4% for copper and 5% for gold.
Silver’s robust demand outlook is driven by growth in electronics and photovoltaic
solar applications. The consensus outlook for lead is well-supported. Copper is
leveraged to the boom in AI capex, electrification, and supply-chain reshoring set
against a tightening supply picture. Gold remains underpinned by sustained central
bank buying.
Emerging cash flow opportunity: Toll treating ore could see production and cash
flow from FY29; a standalone processing facility from FY30. Several workstreams are
underway to advance the development of a boxcut and exploration decline to enable
bulk samples for met test work, de-risk the underground Resource and provide key
infrastructure ahead of production.
Undervalued compared to peers: MMA screens as deep value relative to ASX-
listed silver peers at various stages of the mine life cycle. We expect this valuation
gap will narrow as the company de-risks the high-grade Maronan project and delivers
against the key milestones outlined below.
Timeline & value catalysts
Figure 1: Maronan Project timeline (BPe)
2026 2027 2028
Surface drilling
Upgraded Mineral Resource Estimate / Maiden Ore Reserve MRE ORE
Pre-Feasibility Study
Definitive Feasibility Study
Mining licence (Standalone processing plant)
Boxcut & exploration decline with first ore
Final Investment Decision
Process plant construction
Source: Company data; & Bell Potter Securities estimates
PAGE 3 | 19
MARONAN METALS (MMA) 27 JULY 2026
Valuation & company financials
Risked & diluted sum of the parts valuation
VALUATION METHODOLOGY
Our Maronan Project valuation is based on a 50:50 weighting of two DCF scenarios:
A 1.2Mtpa and a 2.0Mtpa mining and standalone processing plant development
modelled over an initial 9-year mine life. Our project valuation is $195m after applying
a 50% risk discount to account for its pre-feasibility stage of assessment. Our
unrisked project valuation of $389m would result in a fully diluted MMA valuation of
$1.16/sh.
We include an EV/Resource valuation for defined Resources that sit outside the
Starter Zone along with exploration upside and deduct MMA’s corporate overheads.
Figure 2: Risked and diluted sum of the parts valuation
100% % MMA MMA % Risk MMA
Assets Unrisked equity Unrisked discount Risked
Maronan Starter Zone $389m 100% $389m 50% $195m
Project & exploration upside $122m
Total projects $317m
Corporate overheads ($39m)
Enterprise value $278m
Net (debt)/cash (inc. cash from in the money options) $40m
Equity value (diluted) $318m
Diluted shares on issue 340m
Equity value (diluted) $0.94/sh
Assumed near-term equity raise
Value $50m
Current share price $0.38/sh
Raise discount 10%
Raise price $0.34/sh
New shares m 148m
After assumed near-term equity raise
Net (debt)/cash $90m
Equity value $368m
Diluted shares on issue m (after assumed raise) 488m
Equity value $0.76/sh
Source: Company data; & Bell Potter Securities estimates
PAGE 4 | 19
MARONAN METALS (MMA) 27 JULY 2026
Figure 3: PEA estimates & Bell Potter modelled assumptions
PEA toll treat PEA standalone plant BPe standalone plant BPe standalone plant
Throughput 1.2Mtpa 1.2Mtpa 1.2Mtpa 2.0Mtpa
Long term prices (real)
Silver US$36/oz US$58/oz
Lead US$2,100/t US$2,124/t
Copper US$10,000/t US$12,322/t
Gold US$3,000/oz US$4,325/oz
AUDUSD 0.67 0.70
Steady state metrics
Throughput capacity 1.2Mtpa 1.2Mtpa 2.0Mtpa
Silver production 3.0Mozpa 3.1Mozpa 4.6Mozpa
Lead production 37.7ktpa 38.3ktpa 59.1ktpa
Copper production 1.4ktpa 1.4ktpa 2.1ktpa
Gold production 3.8kozpa 3.8kozpa 5.2kozpa
AISC A$36/Ag eq oz A$30/Ag eq oz A$39/Ag eq oz A$42/Ag eq oz
Annual EBITDA $214m $301m
Annual FCF $158m $222m
LOM financials
Mine life (production) 9 years 9 years 9 years 9 years
Pre-production capex $98m $266m $266m $386m
EBITDA $981m $1,451m $2,062m
FCF $595m $683m $769m $1,099m
IRR 67% 33% 31% 32%
NPV (discount rate) $362m (8%, pre-tax) $377m (8%, pre-tax) $494m (9%, pre-tax) $701m (9%, pre-tax)
$320m (9%, post-tax) $458m (9%, post-tax)
Source: Company data; & Bell Potter Securities estimates
ASX-listed silver comps
MMA screens as deep value relative to ASX-listed silver peers at various stages of
the mine life cycle. We expect this valuation gap to narrow as MMA de-risks the high-
grade Maronan project and delivers against key milestones, with upcoming value
catalysts including an upgraded MRE (early 2027), a Pre-Feasibility Study and
maiden Ore Reserve (mid-2027), and development of a boxcut and underground
decline (mid-2027).
Figure 4: ASX-listed silver comps
EV / EV /
EV Resource Resource Resource Resource Resource Reserve EV / Reserve
grade g/t
Company Key asset Stage $m Moz Ag AgEq* A$/oz Ag Moz AgEq* A$/oz AgEq* Moz AgEq* A$/oz AgEq*
Andean Silver (ASL) Cerro Bayo, Chile Resource building 366 55 170 6.7 106 3.4 - -
Polymetals Resources (POL) Endeavour, NSW Aus Producing 240 57 219 4.2 147 1.6 39 6.2
Manuka Resources (MKR) Wonawinta, NSW Aus Producing 151 51 41 2.9 49 3.1 11 13.9
Mithril Silver & Gold (MTH) Copalquin, Mexico Resource building 30 12 251 2.6 38 0.8 - -
Boab Metals (BML) Sorby Hills, WA Aus Development 134 53 66 2.5 96 1.4 31 4.3
Unico Silver (USL) Cerro Leon, Qld Aus Resource building 403 186 104 2.2 247 1.6 - -
Silver Mines (SVL) Bowdens, NSW Aus PFS 277 178 41 1.6 228 1.2

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